COVID-19 US State Data Trends
Note: If you’re using a mobile device, rotate your phone to landscape.
The following graphs depict Covid-19 trends. The graphs are interactive; e.g., hover your cursor over a data-series to observe specific values. I’ve plugged-in a subset of default states but you can modify the analysis by choosing a different subset of states, periods, and/or standardize the statistics by population.
*** The data and graphs refresh daily so be sure to check back for updates ***
A. COVID-19 Mortality Across States
The first two figures present expected vs observed deaths across the entire US or specific states. The first figure presents historical data to provide the reader with a sense of how past mortality data provides insight into what level of mortality we would expect today. For instance, we observe both significant seasonality and stationarity so historical data seems to be a good predictor. Click on the buttons below each graph to learn more about the data — its value and limitations — as well as how “expected” and “excess” deaths are calculated.
Interpretation: These figures enable us to address the question: Are COVID-19 deaths inflated? If true, we would observe no increase in mortality today since the data are simply total weekly deaths from all causes.
We observe:
Mortality (to varying degrees) has increased across all US states.
Mortality has not simply shifted from the flu to COVID-19 though there is likely some of this happening.
COVID-19 is a real thing and not a fabrication of the mainstream media, medical professionals, government officials, etc. I suppose one could argue that the Deep State is fabricating the mortality data but if we can’t agree on raw data, we forfeit any ability to have a real discussion and are relegated to conversations filled with sentences like “I feel that …” and that’s neither productive nor science. What is still unclear is the degree to which the observed increase in mortality is a shift in deaths forward; or equivalently how many life-years and quality-adjusted life-years were taken by COVID-19. That’s an obvious area of future research and an important input to effective policy should we face a similar pandemic in the future.
Figures 3 and 4 enable us to address the question: Who is dying from COVID-19? In Figure 3 I present mortality by state and age group. Due to data limitations, I present raw death counts by week of year rather than historical. We observe that while deaths are indeed relatively concentrated in older Americans (ie, 75+), raw deaths are higher than expected across age groups. This indicates that significant mortality risk extends beyond the elderly, long-term care facilities, etc.
In Figure 4 I present mortality by state and race/ethnicity. We observe that mortality does increase across ethnic groups, the percentage increase is greatest among Black and American Indians.
B. Vaccination Progress Across States
Figure 5 presents total vaccinations (first dose for two dose protocols such as the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines) by state. in the “Raw Data” tab while the “% of Total Population” adjusts for state 2019 population.
C. Trends in Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths Across States
The remaining figures present raw data trends across U.S. states which you can adjust to account for differences in population (click on the tab to switch from the raw data to per capita). These graphs enable us to evaluate trends in COVID19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths across states.
I hope you find these figures interesting and helpful. Of course, (constructive) comments are welcome. Email me at jeff.thurk@uga.edu